North Korea

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Re: North Korea

Post by Del » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:23 pm

TNLawPiper wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:02 pm
Please refer to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea by its official name, thank you.
And always mention that they keep tight control on their nation's supply of cheese, like the Canadians do.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Onyx » Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:12 pm

Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:27 am
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:33 am
So China is now urging restraint from both sides. Oh Lord.
This dance of diplomacy is probably what it will take to resolve the situation.

It looks like a strategy of Good Cop/Bad Cop.

China and America have been allies for decades.
Resolve the situation? Are you referring to the megalomaniac, nuclear-armed, hyper-nationalist, emotionally stunted sabre-rattling ignoramus interested in nothing but his own wealth and power, surrounding himself with dolts too scared to speak up, and supported by fawning sycophants?
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Re: North Korea

Post by Thunktank » Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:21 pm

Regardless, I feel pretty confident that if things do escalate to war with North Korea, we would "win." :lol:

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Re: North Korea

Post by Rusty » Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:43 pm

Thunktank wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:21 pm
Regardless, I feel pretty confident that if things do escalate to war with North Korea, we would "win." :lol:
Win what?
How do you interpret both China and Russia moving planes and troops up to their borders with N. Korea and now moving sigint ships to trail the American naval battle group? What do you think is happening?

Normally in a movie you can tell that the protagonist proceeding is really a bad idea because the scary music starts.

There is some well established behaviour out of America that neither Russia nor China welcome at all. It is encroachment on their borders. Do you remember what the Chinese did as the American forces approached the Yalu river during the Korean war? And do you remember what Russia did when the Ukraine was encouraged to trade with the EU and west and maybe even join NATO as some of the other eastern states were encouraged to do? Both China & Russia really value a buffer state that is their badly behaved dog. Any badly behaved dog may bite but they'd rather discipline the dog. Picking up a stick and advancing on their dog is just asking for a much larger war. Do not presume that N. Korea continues to exist because of their independent genius for statecraft.

You'll end up in a widening war with China & Russia. And putting them together is a very bad idea. It isn't N. Korea that you'll be fighting after the first serious threat to the N. Korean state. Nothing good will happen if you do this.

If instead you turn it into something akin to being on friendly station in Japanese economic zone waters that would be good. That's where N. Korea usually drops test ballistic missiles. They're a bit constrained for territory in which to test missiles. It's fine to be present as a deterrence to that sort of bad dog behaviour.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Thunktank » Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:40 pm

Rusty wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:43 pm
Thunktank wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:21 pm
Regardless, I feel pretty confident that if things do escalate to war with North Korea, we would "win." :lol:
Win what?
How do you interpret both China and Russia moving planes and troops up to their borders with N. Korea and now moving sigint ships to trail the American naval battle group? What do you think is happening?

Normally in a movie you can tell that the protagonist proceeding is really a bad idea because the scary music starts.

There is some well established behaviour out of America that neither Russia nor China welcome at all. It is encroachment on their borders. Do you remember what the Chinese did as the American forces approached the Yalu river during the Korean war? And do you remember what Russia did when the Ukraine was encouraged to trade with the EU and west and maybe even join NATO as some of the other eastern states were encouraged to do? Both China & Russia really value a buffer state that is their badly behaved dog. Any badly behaved dog may bite but they'd rather discipline the dog. Picking up a stick and advancing on their dog is just asking for a much larger war. Do not presume that N. Korea continues to exist because of their independent genius for statecraft.

You'll end up in a widening war with China & Russia. And putting them together is a very bad idea. It isn't N. Korea that you'll be fighting after the first serious threat to the N. Korean state. Nothing good will happen if you do this.

If instead you turn it into something akin to being on friendly station in Japanese economic zone waters that would be good. That's where N. Korea usually drops test ballistic missiles. They're a bit constrained for territory in which to test missiles. It's fine to be present as a deterrence to that sort of bad dog behaviour.
I wasn't being serious. The "win" comment was for the benefit of humor regarding our great president who likes to "win, win, win" all the time.

I basically agree with you, in that we probably do need to increase defense in South Korea and Japan. Japan needs to build a mighty military again.

I'm not too worried about North Korea's ability to wage a war. They really can't alone, the fallout could get ugly though, but I'll tell you, I would rather remove the fallout threat to my west coast before it becomes a threat here! Really, it could be eliminated in a matter of months. China and Russia are a more serious threat sure enough, but would they really? For North Korea? I have my doubts. It doesn't have enough benefit to them. We benefit far more than North Korea does. A more important question is, what will our allies do?

In all seriousness I would probably take a more conservative cautious approach in hopes that North Korea will implode on it's own before anyone else gets hurt. But America elected a guy who likes to move and shake stuff. It wasn't my idea that's for sure!

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Re: North Korea

Post by infidel » Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm

Thunktank wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:40 pm
Japan needs to build a mighty military again.
Japan is way past its prime there.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Del » Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm

Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:12 pm
Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:27 am
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:33 am
So China is now urging restraint from both sides. Oh Lord.
This dance of diplomacy is probably what it will take to resolve the situation.

It looks like a strategy of Good Cop/Bad Cop.

China and America have been allies for decades.
Resolve the situation? Are you referring to the megalomaniac, nuclear-armed, hyper-nationalist, emotionally stunted sabre-rattling ignoramus interested in nothing but his own wealth and power, surrounding himself with dolts too scared to speak up, and supported by fawning sycophants?
Kim Jong-un is a loose cannon, yes.

No one said it would be easy.
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Re: North Korea

Post by TNLawPiper » Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:09 pm

Sir Moose wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:10 pm
TNLawPiper wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:02 pm
Please refer to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea by its official name, thank you.
Do you mean 조선민주주의인민공화국 朝鮮民主主義人民共和國 or is Chosŏn Minjujuŭi Inmin Konghwaguk okay?
POTATO, TOMATO.

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Re: North Korea

Post by Onyx » Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:13 pm

Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:12 pm
Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:27 am
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:33 am
So China is now urging restraint from both sides. Oh Lord.
This dance of diplomacy is probably what it will take to resolve the situation.

It looks like a strategy of Good Cop/Bad Cop.

China and America have been allies for decades.
Resolve the situation? Are you referring to the megalomaniac, nuclear-armed, hyper-nationalist, emotionally stunted sabre-rattling ignoramus interested in nothing but his own wealth and power, surrounding himself with dolts too scared to speak up, and supported by fawning sycophants?
Kim Jong-un is a wild card, yes.

No one said it would be easy.
What makes you think I was talking about Kim Jong-un? Del, Trump is not the solution. He's the problem. North Korea is a freakin' disaster, and it's being used cynically by China. That's bad. But Trump is charging around and inflaming the situation by saying ignorant things to appeal to idiots like you. It's quite possible that he'll get a lot of people in Korea killed. I also have family in Japan. Goodness knows they would be much safer if Trump would shut his ignorant mouth. He needs to leave this situation to adults who are emotionally mature enough that they don't need to affirm their own adequacy by acting macho and constantly telling everyone that they're winning and telling everyone about the size of their penis. That's right, he is that guy... I didn't make that up, the media didn't fake it to make him look insecure, he actually said it because he's that guy.

North Korea represents a serious and complex problem for the world right now. Obama wanted military intervention, but was blocked by the Republicans. Honestly, I'm not confident that this would have been a good idea. I think that it was likely better to keep working with China, more finely target sanctions to hit the regime and specifically military capabilities, and to keep the powder dry for a massive response if South Korea or Japan are touched.

Also, negotiate a peace with North Korea (which is a major omission in foreign policy since the Korean war). Negotiate a peace that gives the North Korean regime some confidence of national security other than a nuclear standoff.

If you think that bringing it all to a head now with deliberate provocation and inflammatory rhetoric is a "dance of diplomacy... probably what it will take to resolve the situation"... then you are playing with fire... in someone else's house. And your guy in charge has the sophistication to ask, "why can't we use nuclear weapons?" Good Lord. No wonder the North Koreans are getting jumpy.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Del » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:14 pm

Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:13 pm
Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:12 pm
Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:27 am
Onyx wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:33 am
So China is now urging restraint from both sides. Oh Lord.
This dance of diplomacy is probably what it will take to resolve the situation.

It looks like a strategy of Good Cop/Bad Cop.

China and America have been allies for decades.
Resolve the situation? Are you referring to the megalomaniac, nuclear-armed, hyper-nationalist, emotionally stunted sabre-rattling ignoramus interested in nothing but his own wealth and power, surrounding himself with dolts too scared to speak up, and supported by fawning sycophants?
Kim Jong-un is a wild card, yes.

No one said it would be easy.
What makes you think I was talking about Kim Jong-un? Del, Trump is not the solution. He's the problem. North Korea is a freakin' disaster, and it's being used cynically by China. That's bad. But Trump is charging around and inflaming the situation by saying ignorant things to appeal to idiots like you. It's quite possible that he'll get a lot of people in Korea killed. I also have family in Japan. Goodness knows they would be much safer if Trump would shut his ignorant mouth. He needs to leave this situation to adults who are emotionally mature enough that they don't need to affirm their own adequacy by acting macho and constantly telling everyone that they're winning and telling everyone about the size of their penis. That's right, he is that guy... I didn't make that up, the media didn't fake it to make him look insecure, he actually said it because he's that guy.

North Korea represents a serious and complex problem for the world right now. Obama wanted military intervention, but was blocked by the Republicans. Honestly, I'm not confident that this would have been a good idea. I think that it was likely better to keep working with China, more finely target sanctions to hit the regime and specifically military capabilities, and to keep the powder dry for a massive response if South Korea or Japan are touched.

Also, negotiate a peace with North Korea (which is a major omission in foreign policy since the Korean war). Negotiate a peace that gives the North Korean regime some confidence of national security other than a nuclear standoff.

If you think that bringing it all to a head now with deliberate provocation and inflammatory rhetoric is a "dance of diplomacy... probably what it will take to resolve the situation"... then you are playing with fire... in someone else's house. And your guy in charge has the sophistication to ask, "why can't we use nuclear weapons?" Good Lord. No wonder the North Koreans are getting jumpy.
Let's not get this thread locked.

As the aircraft carrier is steaming to the South Pacific to engage in joint-military exercises with the Australian naval forces, perhaps we should ask of the Australian military/diplomatic corps what they think the world ought to do about North Korea's nuclear threat?

I hope it is better than the Canadian's suggestion that nation should maintain federal control over their national supply of cheese.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Goose55 » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:36 pm

Let's keep the discussion civil and courteous.

Those acquainted with Kim, when he was a student in Europe say he is unpredictable.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... 0664d7e350

So what do we do, just wait and standby to shoot down missiles? Is there anyone within North Korea that can take Kim's place and make the place "normal"?
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Re: North Korea

Post by Onyx » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:12 am

Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:14 pm
Let's not get this thread locked.
Goose55 wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:36 pm
Let's keep the discussion civil and courteous.
Let's all tip toe around for fear of admitting we've elected a borderline psychopath.

To be utterly pragmatic, North Korea can have a crazy leader because they are small and poor. The USA does not have that luxury. I thought. But I was wrong. Obviously.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Del » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:13 am

Onyx wrote:
Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:12 am
Del wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:14 pm
Let's not get this thread locked.
Goose55 wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:36 pm
Let's keep the discussion civil and courteous.
Let's all tip toe around for fear of admitting we've elected a borderline psychopath.

To be utterly pragmatic, North Korea can have a crazy leader because they are small and poor. The USA does not have that luxury. I thought. But I was wrong. Obviously.

Please refrain from insisting that our President is going to fire off nukes or start World War III.

We get it. Your concern for a nuclear-capable North Korea is utterly eclipsed by your visceral hatred of Donald Trump. It does not matter what Trump does or says or doesn't say, you will declare that he utterly wrong-headed and stupid for doing so, and declare that worse is certainly to come.

Thank you, but we do not need your help in this matter. We already have the Democratic Party the leftist media, providing us with a surplus of knee-jerk reactions.

As you have made your position painfully clear, I will stop responding to your posts about our President. I am not ignoring you or being disrespectful, but everyone is tired of this. They will keep locking threads until this quits, you see.
===================================================================

Meanwhile.... America has already tried ignoring the North Korean regime, hoping that they will settle down and stop feeling paranoid. We tried appeasing them with large payments of money in exchange for promises that they would not develop nukes and missiles.

I believe that you are right: We must continue to engage them in negotiations. But it also appears to be necessary to back those negotiations with credible shows of force. And the cooperation of China and America.

President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping shared a summit meeting in early April. China moved troops to the Korean border immediately following.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... order.html

We can imagine what the Chinese are saying to the North Koreans..... "We must protect our own borders, as you know. We may help you if America strikes without provocation. Of course if Korea strikes at the American fleet first, we will have to assess the situation and react as needed to preserve peace on our borders. Perhaps it would be best for Korea if you would accept some of the Americans' demands concerning your international weapons and persuade their fleet to go home."
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Re: North Korea

Post by TNLawPiper » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:29 am

Released not long ago is a book called The Accusation, which is reportedly a collection of journal entries by North Korean subjects, which was smuggled out of the country at the behest of someone remaining therein. From a good review of the book comes the following quote:
Bandi’s humanization of the North Korean people is, in fact, one key element that makes this collection so important. For the first time beyond lines of poetry or harrowing memoirs of those who have escaped the clutches of that oppressive dictatorship, Bandi gives an inside look at the lives of normal people under the power of the DPRK, and in the process, he brings the full power of the artist against the forces of totalitarianism in his home land.
If the book accurately reflects the everyday experiences of the subjects of North Korea, it is as sad and desolate as we believe it to be. The first entry alone is so deeply moving that it's worth the trouble to rent or buy the book.

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Re: North Korea

Post by Rusty » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:42 am

Goose55 wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:36 pm
Let's keep the discussion civil and courteous.

Those acquainted with Kim, when he was a student in Europe say he is unpredictable.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... 0664d7e350

So what do we do, just wait and standby to shoot down missiles? Is there anyone within North Korea that can take Kim's place and make the place "normal"?
There is a guy with experience in a form of capitalism that owns a pizza parlour down near the river in Pyongyang. He claims to have the only nuclear fired pizza oven. I dunno, what do ya think?

We need someone on the other side so I'll offer another pov.

Really the DPRK has accomplished the same developments as other emerging nuclear powers, including the US. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent and so provide security for the State. However, any preemptive use has the opposite effect with virtually guaranteed destruction. Now Beijing has told them no more nuclear bomb tests or the relationship is broken and they have no other trading partner. I think that may slow them down considerably.

It appears that they started seriously pursuing this with the loss of the Soviets in the early 90's. The Soviets were their real sponsor, guarantor, and bankrolled them. But no more. China does trade with them and is their lifeline. But I gather their leader has refused invitations to go to China or even meet with them in N. Korea so relations are frosty. And N. Korea is vulnerable. Neither the Soviets nor the Chinese ever agreed to their nuclear weapon ambitions. But the Soviets did supply them with the reactors.

They really do have implosion fission weapons at this point. I think many of the early tests (3 of 5) were probably fizzles because of the very low yields. But they do achieve expected yields now from the class of weapons that they can make. It is extremely unlikely that they have thermonuclear weapons or are even close to that despite what they say. They're still working on fission bombs and they're still testing them. There is no evidence for boosted fission weapons either. And they appear to be still quite large physically and maybe too large and too heavy for their missile payload capacity. So it's at least questionable whether they're deployable. And they have developed IRBM's & ICBM's and they sell this technology to others. They still have a lot of missile failures though so that is still developing too. But it isn't clear that they've mated weaponized nuclear warheads to missiles, nor have they tested anything like this. So I think it's quite possible that delivering a weapon has probably no reliability yet so is better done by courier. This is consistent with Trump putting an American Carrier group well within range of IRBMs. N. Korea is demonstrably independent of external sources for reactor fuel and all of processing to get weapon fuel so they can continue making weapon grade plutonium. That's the big challenge met. So if left to run they will develop operational weapons with delivery capability.

So what to do? They really need an off-ramp from this disaster. And I think China is the only source of sufficient peaceful pressure to make any progress. I think China has marginal to no control over the DPRK so China has let this develop. It's doubtful that they are a threat to the US Naval Carrier group today. And aside from words nothing is likely to happen unless the US provokes it. But maybe just the presence will get the right people at the table to find a solution and an offramp.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Onyx » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:02 pm

Del wrote:
Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:13 am
...Your concern for a nuclear-capable North Korea is utterly eclipsed by your visceral hatred of Donald Trump.
false.
Del wrote: It does not matter what Trump does or says or doesn't say, you will declare that he utterly wrong-headed and stupid for doing so,
false
Del wrote: and declare that worse is certainly to come.
false
Del wrote:
... you have made your position painfully clear...,
true
Del wrote: Please refrain from insisting that our President is going to fire off nukes or start World War III.
Ok.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Rusty » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:32 pm

Could North Korea Really Back Up Its Threat and Sink a U.S. Carrier?

Short answer: No. They probably can't even find it.

It's an interesting comparison of projecting power.
In the latest salvo from North Korea, the country's state newspaper has likened an approaching U.S. aircraft carrier to a "gross animal" and threatened to sink the ship with one blow. Could North Korea really destroy an American aircraft carrier ? The answer is almost certainly no.

Yesterday, North Korea's state paper the Rodong Shinmun warned: "Our revolutionary forces are combat-ready to sink a U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with a single strike." The warning was issued after it was revealed the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson was headed to the Korean Peninsula. Two Japanese destroyers, the Ashigara and Samidare, are joining up with the carrier strike group, which consists of the Vinson, the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain, and guided missile destroyers USS Wayne E. Meyer and USS Michael Murphy.
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Re: North Korea

Post by Thunktank » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:02 pm

infidel wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm
Thunktank wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:40 pm
Japan needs to build a mighty military again.
Japan is way past its prime there.
Not at all! Japan has significant ability to raise a world class military. I think you know that too. Not sure what you're getting at with that comment.

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Re: North Korea

Post by Rusty » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:04 am

"We're taking orders via Twitter now?" .... At the Pentagon

Oh Hillary... You abandon us to this?

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Re: North Korea

Post by infidel » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:33 am

Thunktank wrote:
Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:02 pm
infidel wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:48 pm
Thunktank wrote:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:40 pm
Japan needs to build a mighty military again.
Japan is way past its prime there.
Not at all! Japan has significant ability to raise a world class military. I think you know that too. Not sure what you're getting at with that comment.
Their population is aging and shrinking, their economy is slowing down, they're in deeper debt than we are. I'm not so sure.
infi-

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