The Climate Change Thread

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UncleBob
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The Climate Change Thread

Post by UncleBob » Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:27 pm

Rusty wrote:
UncleBob wrote:
Rusty wrote:
Hovannes wrote:
Rusty wrote:
To me this looks like the side-effects of dealing with politicians. They don't like natural variation. But tell me, why are we losing ice coverage at the poles and in glaciers? It is evident that it is really occurring. So what does the wise old Hov say?
Wise old Hov says it's splendid fun jerking your chain, Rusty old chap! :lol:
You should keep in mind that I am a proud citizen of a rogue nation with out of control greenhouse gases that welched on our Kyoto commitments and then simply opted out of the whole business. Our Gov has been relaxing environmental laws to allow some damage to the environment, on a selective basis, to accomplish other goals eg promote the economy. They've also tried to eradicate any program that they're funding that would rat them out. We're a progressive 19th C. nation.

While I enjoy the denial of the whole issue there is too much evidence that climate change is real. The deniers look a bit demented to me. But the notion that the climatologists really understand climate and can predict the future is a bit of a fiction I suspect. They have a tough time predicting the weather 2 days in advance.

Once we get past all the denying and bigotry there is still a question. Is there a problem with climate? ie do we need to do anything?
Yes, but there is nothing we can really do about it.
I think there very likely are things we can do esp over the long term but we really know very little more than there appears to be a problem. Will it right itself? Or is there something we can do to encourage a drop in greenhouse gases? Is that the key problem? Why does anyone think that conservation measures ie curtail production of greenhouse gases will be effective never mind sufficient? It's quite possible that the die was cast decades ago for the behaviour & symptoms of problems we see. It's a very big complex system that has probably been through worse.
I think the evidence is clear that our climate is changing, that humans have influenced these changes, and there is little we can do unless we drastically change our population or behavior--neither of which is going to happen.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by Rusty » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:05 pm

UncleBob wrote:
Rusty wrote:
UncleBob wrote:
Rusty wrote:
Hovannes wrote:
Rusty wrote:
To me this looks like the side-effects of dealing with politicians. They don't like natural variation. But tell me, why are we losing ice coverage at the poles and in glaciers? It is evident that it is really occurring. So what does the wise old Hov say?
Wise old Hov says it's splendid fun jerking your chain, Rusty old chap! :lol:
You should keep in mind that I am a proud citizen of a rogue nation with out of control greenhouse gases that welched on our Kyoto commitments and then simply opted out of the whole business. Our Gov has been relaxing environmental laws to allow some damage to the environment, on a selective basis, to accomplish other goals eg promote the economy. They've also tried to eradicate any program that they're funding that would rat them out. We're a progressive 19th C. nation.

While I enjoy the denial of the whole issue there is too much evidence that climate change is real. The deniers look a bit demented to me. But the notion that the climatologists really understand climate and can predict the future is a bit of a fiction I suspect. They have a tough time predicting the weather 2 days in advance.

Once we get past all the denying and bigotry there is still a question. Is there a problem with climate? ie do we need to do anything?
Yes, but there is nothing we can really do about it.
I think there very likely are things we can do esp over the long term but we really know very little more than there appears to be a problem. Will it right itself? Or is there something we can do to encourage a drop in greenhouse gases? Is that the key problem? Why does anyone think that conservation measures ie curtail production of greenhouse gases will be effective never mind sufficient? It's quite possible that the die was cast decades ago for the behaviour & symptoms of problems we see. It's a very big complex system that has probably been through worse.
I think the evidence is clear that our climate is changing, that humans have influenced these changes, and there is little we can do unless we drastically change our population or behavior--neither of which is going to happen.
Ok. But their predictions for the future climate are based upon models of the system. Yet, they continue to register surprise when something remarkable happens eg the speed and rate of ice loss in the Arctic. Some, of it was expected as a trend but not the extremes & not the rate they've seen. The surprise overall suggests (at least to me) that the fidelity of the model is at least questionable.

Also the lead greenhouse gas CO2 is consumed for plant growth throughout most of the plant biosphere in oceans and on land. I would naively assume that the forests and plants are part of the system. The plants themselves probably contain among the largest reserves of carbon on the planet too. So the plant life has to interact with the atmosphere. This is an enormous ballast to us burning everything in sight and producing GHG's. Are the forests and flora of the world reacting to increased CO2? Could we get them to react & consume more?

Here's something I just found that is related to that last paragraph...
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2 ... he-forest/

It's worth reading and it's not long. But spotted the following almost right away...

“This larger dataset will help us to better understand the extent of the response we observed,” he said. “That in turn will help us to build better models, and improve predictions of the future of the Earth’s climate. Right now, all the models we have underrepresent this effect by as much as an order of magnitude, so the question is: What are the models not getting? What do they need to incorporate to capture this effect, and how will that affect their projections for climate change?”

The bold is courtesy me.
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Post by MrPiper » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:35 pm

xxxxx
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by UncleBob » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:41 pm

Rusty wrote:
Ok. But their predictions for the future climate are based upon models of the system. Yet, they continue to register surprise when something remarkable happens eg the speed and rate of ice loss in the Arctic. Some, of it was expected as a trend but not the extremes & not the rate they've seen. The surprise overall suggests (at least to me) that the fidelity of the model is at least questionable.

Also the lead greenhouse gas CO2 is consumed for plant growth throughout most of the plant biosphere in oceans and on land. I would naively assume that the forests and plants are part of the system. The plants themselves probably contain among the largest reserves of carbon on the planet too. So the plant life has to interact with the atmosphere. This is an enormous ballast to us burning everything in sight and producing GHG's. Are the forests and flora of the world reacting to increased CO2? Could we get them to react & consume more?
All models are subject to correction. However, the overall trend is that climate is changing. This could be natural. In fact, I read that all the planets in the solar system are experiencing global warming. This could be a natural cycle of some sort we don't understand.

Still, there is a lot of evidence that we are affecting climate change. For instance, deforestation is affecting CO2 consumption by plants forcing the oceans to absorb more and leading to higher acidity. Its just the way it is. Also, more CO2 is released into the atmosphere by consuming fossil fuels which we need to power our lights, heat our homes, and travel to the myriad of mini malls all over the USA, at least.

All these resources are being consumed at accelerated rates. When I was born there were 3+ billion people. Now there are 7.1 billion people. This has some effect on climate change. This also has all kinds of other effects like more cattle to feed people which produces more methane. More houses means less forests and (interestingly) more termites which is the leading cause of greenhouse emissions. More concrete means more heat reflected back into the atmosphere. And it goes on and on.

In order to reduce or erase our effect on climate change we would need to drastically reduce the population and/or completely change our lifestyles which will not happen unless it is forced upon us by nature. Eventually, we will run out of resources or some virus will emerge or something else will happen to force a change in lifestyle and/or reduce our population but our climate will never "go back to normal" (whatever that is).

Frankly, it could happen by trying to store CO2 either underground or some other way. Suppose we store enough CO2 in old oil wells to make a difference and some natural calamity occurs to release it all at once!

IMO, we need to clean up the toxins in the environment, try to keep as much of the surface under foliage as we can, and try to reduce the acidity of the oceans ASAP. This is just to give humanity its best chance at enjoying a more moderate and conducive climate for as long as possible.
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Post by Rusty » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:44 pm

Easy there Piper. You can go back and look at the record and ice age is not what they were saying. This one has been dispelled so many times that it should be easy for you to find.

The CFC's were implicated in ozone layer depletion and a hole actually persisted over the South Pole. If it had happened over the North Pole many more incidences of cancer and damage would have occurred. We were lucky.

We're not making fault or blame part of the discussion. The question asked was Is there a problem with climate and do we need to do anything?
Feel free to answer. But if you say No, then I'd like it if you addressed evident Arctic ice cap and glacier loss in the northern hemisphere at least. It's tough to claim a negative answer with that going on.

You can still pray but dial back the opposition just a little, please. Unless you have marvelous answers to the question in which case show us.
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Post by jruegg » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:07 pm

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Post by Rusty » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:17 pm

jruegg wrote:From Canada no less!

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/55939

:lol:
Yah but that guy is a wacko. That's not a news source. And Canada is a rogue nation. Read what I wrote above.

You said Nope in the other thread to the question asked.
How do you explain the loss of ice as I asked in my resp to Piper?
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Post by Roadmaster » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:34 pm

Just an observation:

Republicans are more likely than Democrates to have children yet they are less likely to protect the environment their children will inherite.

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Post by jruegg » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:42 pm

Rusty wrote:
jruegg wrote:From Canada no less!

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/55939

:lol:
Yah but that guy is a wacko. That's not a news source. And Canada is a rogue nation. Read what I wrote above.

You said Nope in the other thread to the question asked.
How do you explain the loss of ice as I asked in my resp to Piper?
Probably the same reason there's no more glaciers in southern Canada.
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Post by MrPiper » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:13 pm

xxxxx
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Post by gaining_age » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:45 pm

Modeling the earth is no simple thing nor modeling the subset of the atmosphere and climate.

And a larger influence is the sun's variation with solar flares etc.

Complicated doesn't mean it isn't worth studying- just that it'll take a long time and a lot of data to improve the modeling.

Until there is centuries worth of data we'll be dealing with conjecture and politics.
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Post by Thunktank » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:49 pm

MrPiper wrote: While I am not prone to avail myself as data gopher. . .
Do you avail yourself as a data reader very often?

I would say data is really the point in this discussion. Not just the data random news services choose to give us either. Climate change actually has nothing to do with arrogance, liberals, Democrats, non Christians and so on. Really, it's just about climate change and why it happens. Politicians, preachers, and pipers can turn it into a social/political football if they want, but it doesn't change what really is. Lets just read enough data, get enough data and let the most qualified people interpret the data to the best of their ability. The rest of us should be willing to listen to sound data and reject unsound doctrine. In the meantime, we should do the obvious and try being more green because that has many positive outcomes. And no, I'm not suggesting that we all by more batteries for energy.

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Post by Rusty » Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:40 pm

MrPiper wrote:
Rusty wrote:Easy there Piper. You can go back and look at the record and ice age is not what they were saying. This one has been dispelled so many times that it should be easy for you to find.

The CFC's were implicated in ozone layer depletion and a hole actually persisted over the South Pole. If it had happened over the North Pole many more incidences of cancer and damage would have occurred. We were lucky.

We're not making fault or blame part of the discussion. The question asked was Is there a problem with climate and do we need to do anything?
Feel free to answer. But if you say No, then I'd like it if you addressed evident Arctic ice cap and glacier loss in the northern hemisphere at least. It's tough to claim a negative answer with that going on.

You can still pray but dial back the opposition just a little, please. Unless you have marvelous answers to the question in which case show us.
May be happening, may not, either way, not by man's doing. What arrogance. BTW there are more trees in the "lower 48" today by far than when Columbus arrived. Forrestation is at a century high. Managed forestry and crop growth has generated more vegetation in a consistent manner than perhaps has ever occurred in history.

While I am not prone to avail myself as data gopher, this is one article of interest...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tions.html
Why is that article interesting?
If you look to the top of the page there is a whole sequence that are either commenting on that article or, in the case of NASA, they're reporting on the Polar ice cap status before that article was written.

I'm not sure why it must be arrogance that we're contributing to the problem. Do you think the planet's capacity to absorb our waste is infinite? When you're flying into many cities in N.A., both Canada & US one can see the smog. It's not a natural feature. There are days when the air quality is so bad that older people & people with medical conditions are warned to stay in. That's real and life expectancy for may of them is shortened. There are lots of places that are badly damaged by waste and they're expensive environmental problems to fix. Remember Love Canal? We've killed the life in lakes and streams, etc. There are lots of examples. So I don't understand the comment that it's arrogant. Is it an article of faith or related to an article of faith?
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Post by jruegg » Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:41 pm

You're all wrong.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by infidel » Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:19 am

UncleBob wrote:I read that all the planets in the solar system are experiencing global warming.
This feels like either a misleading use of the term "global warming" or something entirely made-up.
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Post by infidel » Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:26 am

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Post by Cleon » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:06 am

I just changed the climate in the room I left. Heh.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by UncleBob » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:13 am

infidel wrote:
UncleBob wrote:I read that all the planets in the solar system are experiencing global warming.
This feels like either a misleading use of the term "global warming" or something entirely made-up.
Apparently, not all are warming:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global- ... ediate.htm
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Post by UncleBob » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:33 pm

"One man's theology is another man's belly laugh." - Robert A. Heinlein

"Many of the points here, taken to their logical conclusions, don't hold up to logic; they're simply Godded-up ways of saying "I don't like that." - Skip

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." -Mark Twain

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Post by UncleBob » Sat Sep 28, 2013 4:39 pm

"One man's theology is another man's belly laugh." - Robert A. Heinlein

"Many of the points here, taken to their logical conclusions, don't hold up to logic; they're simply Godded-up ways of saying "I don't like that." - Skip

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please." -Mark Twain

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