The 416 Fire North of Durango

[sweetandsour]

Once it all burns off then the threat is gone for a few years during re-forestation? Or at least puts you at ease for the rest of the summer?

A little bit.
But the mountain that’s our backyard, Animas Mountain, is densely forested with oak and still susceptible.

What we really need is more rain.
The forecast is for an earlier than usual monsoon, which would be great.

If that develops, we’ll be out of danger.

Looking through WU's forecast to the end of the month, no monsoon seen here yet

We’re forecast to be hot and dry in the 10 day forecast.
That takes us to near the normal start of the monsoon.

That early monsoon forecast might have been off!

Wish we could send you some. I've dumped just over 11" out of my rain gauge here at our house since yesterday, and there are still a few showers about.

[durangopipe]

Once it all burns off then the threat is gone for a few years during re-forestation? Or at least puts you at ease for the rest of the summer?

A little bit.
But the mountain that’s our backyard, Animas Mountain, is densely forested with oak and still susceptible.

What we really need is more rain.
The forecast is for an earlier than usual monsoon, which would be great.

If that develops, we’ll be out of danger.

Looking through WU's forecast to the end of the month, no monsoon seen here yet

We’re forecast to be hot and dry in the 10 day forecast.
That takes us to near the normal start of the monsoon.

That early monsoon forecast might have been off!

Wish we could send you some. I've dumped just over 11" out of my rain gauge here at our house since yesterday, and there are still a few showers about.

I’ve been seeing the flooding in your area on the weather channel, Tim.
Hope you’re on high ground.

[sweetandsour]

Once it all burns off then the threat is gone for a few years during re-forestation? Or at least puts you at ease for the rest of the summer?

A little bit.
But the mountain that’s our backyard, Animas Mountain, is densely forested with oak and still susceptible.

What we really need is more rain.
The forecast is for an earlier than usual monsoon, which would be great.

If that develops, we’ll be out of danger.

Looking through WU's forecast to the end of the month, no monsoon seen here yet

We’re forecast to be hot and dry in the 10 day forecast.
That takes us to near the normal start of the monsoon.

That early monsoon forecast might have been off!

Wish we could send you some. I've dumped just over 11" out of my rain gauge here at our house since yesterday, and there are still a few showers about.

I’ve been seeing the flooding in your area on the weather channel, Tim.
Hope you’re on high ground.

We're good, thanks. And not growing gills, yet.

[durangopipe]

Glad you’re okay, Tim.

We remain on pre-evacuation status.

The video fire update is late today, but here’s a printed update from Incident Command that relates to our situation (just south of Falls Creek, and east of Junction Creek):

Current Situation: Moisture amounts received over the past few days curtailed active burning for the time being. Today, fire behavior potential remains low, but will rise throughout the week. Surface fuels have reheated enough to support some combustion; this tendency will increase in the coming days. The west side of the fire is most likely to see fire spread first. Residents should be aware that smoke will be visible as fuels smolder in already burned areas, and some fuels could kindle with visible flame. The 416 Fire will not be completely cool until the arrival of monsoons.
Branch I (Divisions H, D, A, E, F, and G):
Direct line on the south perimeter is now complete. Today, hotshot crews on the Falls Creek Ridge will improve the indirect line that ties from the Junction Creek Road southeast into the direct line. As operations are completed, crews will hold and patrol until critical weather periods are over.

[durangopipe]

Today’s video update:

https://www.facebook.com/416Fire/videos ... 930001630/

I’m going to bring all of our stuff home and put it away, just in time for some wonderful old buddies who are coming this weekend.

[Goose55]

Down here in Arizonaland the dew point and humidity still are not at monsoon levels

Clouds Clear
Dew Point 40 °F
Humidity 23%

[Goose55]

Down here in Arizonaland the dew point and humidity still are not at monsoon levels

Clouds Clear
Dew Point 40 °F
Humidity 23%

No monsoon clouds to be seen yet but the air is changing...

Dew Point 47 °F
Humidity 28%

[durangopipe]

Not out of the woods, yet.

We moved everything back into the house, but the danger persists and we’re still on pre-evacuation status.
If the fire breaks through the direct containment line in Falls Creek and heads toward the indirect line (north of us but between us and the fire perimeter), we’ll likely be evacuated.

But we’ll have a houseful of guests to help us grab stuff and go.

Latest update:

https://www.facebook.com/416Fire/posts/1305525216250668

[Bloodhound]

Continuing in prayer for the firefighters and those affected and you.

[Goose55]

I wouldn't fault folks in Durango not being quite as much in the mood for fireworks this July 4th. Looked at the forecast up there and no rain over the next 10 days. Just wind and heat. Sorry you folk up there are having to endure this, DP

[durangopipe]

I wouldn't fault folks in Durango not being quite as much in the mood for fireworks this July 4th. Looked at the forecast up there and no rain over the next 10 days. Just wind and heat. Sorry you folk up there are having to endure this, DP

Fireworks have been cancelled, too dangerous given the conditions, both here and up in Silverton which relies on their terrific fireworks and Fourth ofJuly celebration to bring in thousands of tourists.

[Goose55]

I wouldn't fault folks in Durango not being quite as much in the mood for fireworks this July 4th. Looked at the forecast up there and no rain over the next 10 days. Just wind and heat. Sorry you folk up there are having to endure this, DP

Fireworks have been cancelled, too dangerous given the conditions, both here and up in Silverton which relies on their terrific fireworks and Fourth ofJuly celebration to bring in thousands of tourists.

Monsoonal flow down here in SW Arizona after we began to experience atmospheric changes last week, now appears to have retreated. Our Dew Point is a low 23 °F and Humidity is only 7%. But it does that at the beginning and end of monsoon season. And it can change at the drop of a hat. Hopefully for Durango's sake, and for the sake of other areas with fires, this will be a rip roaring monsoon with a lot of rain.

[durangopipe]

Although the fire has grown by nearly 10,000 acres over the past two days, containment lines are holding!
We remain on pre-evacuation status, but the risk of fire spreading into our part of the valley is very slight.

Thanks for all your prayers.

The fire continues to burn in the Hermosa Wilderness, as does the Burro Fire a few miles west of the 416, and smoke in Durango is a serious health concern. This morning I could not see through the smoke either to the sandstone canyon wall 150-200 yd. to the north, or see the summit of Animas Mountain rising above our backyard. Missionary Ridge to the east is totally obscured.

Windows are closed, and I plan to stay inside today.

Here’s a link to the smoke report:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15-u35L ... NscLm/view