The Climate Change Thread

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gaining_age
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by gaining_age » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:50 pm

durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:07 pm
gaining_age wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:51 pm
durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:16 pm
:cry1:

Well, here we are, again.
For the umpteenth time in the past 40 years.
Nah. Read my post carefully. There is something shifting in the solar activity cycle(s) (see NASA article) -- which a cycle we're entering is the next 11 years. If (notice the conditional) there is a strong correlation between solar activity behavior and climate then (second part of a conditional) we should observe that correlation.

There's not umpteenth time about the post.

Also note that I am not giving credence to social media uproar. The only thing I had seen was information that had mentioned a change in the solar activity which I shared here.

As a scientist, I'm interested in observing correlation (or lack there-of). It will take a few years to get into the cycle.

Did my response as a scientist cause the tears? Or the fact that I am looking for evidence which could be misunderstood (similar, as far as being misunderstood, to NASA reporting in the article) the reason?

I apologize for stimulating an emotional response.
No need for an apology, ga.

It’s a serious matter, with serious consequences and you’re thoughts are far more considered and reasoned than many - but still, for me, kind of frustrating.

If you have read (notice the conditional “if” :D - your response suggests that you either didn’t read the linked articles, or you prejudged them) the linked articles (selected from many, many more like them not from suspect but from reliable sources) you saw that any connection between solar cycle variation and the current measured rise and multi-year rising trend in global temperatures has been very thoroughly researched: there is no significant contribution from solar cycle variation, for several reasons (discussed in the articles).

Likewise, the spread of disinformation about solar cycles and a coming mini ice age spread in media (that you say you “do not know about” - meaning, I believe, “I don’t think so”) is clearly established.
....<and more...>

Aha... I appreciate the correction and the direction. I had, indeed, not read through your links and shall. I pulled up the last one that had a weird blend of sources in identifying many of them as biased, etc. I glanced through many I was not familiar with and then saw a few that I might disagree with being categorized. But, again, that was a cursory look-- the chart had arrows and I didn't dive into the article to figure what they were indicating.

I pulled up the valid point of the solar activity... but had not realized from your links that that was your same reference arena. I don't keep an ear to the extremes nor the arguments on this field. I agree with you it is sad-- perhaps from similar and some different reasons.

Regardless, I'll follow up to read more into the links you had provided to see what the references are about.

G.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by durangopipe » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:57 pm

gaining_age wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:50 pm
durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:07 pm
gaining_age wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:51 pm
durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:16 pm
:cry1:

Well, here we are, again.
For the umpteenth time in the past 40 years.
Nah. Read my post carefully. There is something shifting in the solar activity cycle(s) (see NASA article) -- which a cycle we're entering is the next 11 years. If (notice the conditional) there is a strong correlation between solar activity behavior and climate then (second part of a conditional) we should observe that correlation.

There's not umpteenth time about the post.

Also note that I am not giving credence to social media uproar. The only thing I had seen was information that had mentioned a change in the solar activity which I shared here.

As a scientist, I'm interested in observing correlation (or lack there-of). It will take a few years to get into the cycle.

Did my response as a scientist cause the tears? Or the fact that I am looking for evidence which could be misunderstood (similar, as far as being misunderstood, to NASA reporting in the article) the reason?

I apologize for stimulating an emotional response.
No need for an apology, ga.

It’s a serious matter, with serious consequences and you’re thoughts are far more considered and reasoned than many - but still, for me, kind of frustrating.

If you have read (notice the conditional “if” :D - your response suggests that you either didn’t read the linked articles, or you prejudged them) the linked articles (selected from many, many more like them not from suspect but from reliable sources) you saw that any connection between solar cycle variation and the current measured rise and multi-year rising trend in global temperatures has been very thoroughly researched: there is no significant contribution from solar cycle variation, for several reasons (discussed in the articles).

Likewise, the spread of disinformation about solar cycles and a coming mini ice age spread in media (that you say you “do not know about” - meaning, I believe, “I don’t think so”) is clearly established.
....<and more...>

Aha... I appreciate the correction and the direction. I had, indeed, not read through your links and shall. I pulled up the last one that had a weird blend of sources in identifying many of them as biased, etc. I glanced through many I was not familiar with and then saw a few that I might disagree with being categorized. But, again, that was a cursory look-- the chart had arrows and I didn't dive into the article to figure what they were indicating.

I pulled up the valid point of the solar activity... but had not realized from your links that that was your same reference arena. I don't keep an ear to the extremes nor the arguments on this field. I agree with you it is sad-- perhaps from similar and some different reasons.

Regardless, I'll follow up to read more into the links you had provided to see what the references are about.

G.
A most gracious and appreciated response, ga.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by Del » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:02 am

There was a joke running around Wisconsin a few weeks ago....

"The best Halloween Costume award goes to Autumn -- who arrived this year dressed up as Winter!"
REMEMBER THE KAVANAUGH!

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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by gaining_age » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:26 am

durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:07 pm
gaining_age wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:51 pm
durangopipe wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 5:16 pm
:cry1:

Well, here we are, again.
For the umpteenth time in the past 40 years.
Nah. Read my post carefully. There is something shifting in the solar activity cycle(s) (see NASA article) -- which a cycle we're entering is the next 11 years. If (notice the conditional) there is a strong correlation between solar activity behavior and climate then (second part of a conditional) we should observe that correlation.

There's not umpteenth time about the post.

Also note that I am not giving credence to social media uproar. The only thing I had seen was information that had mentioned a change in the solar activity which I shared here.

As a scientist, I'm interested in observing correlation (or lack there-of). It will take a few years to get into the cycle.

Did my response as a scientist cause the tears? Or the fact that I am looking for evidence which could be misunderstood (similar, as far as being misunderstood, to NASA reporting in the article) the reason?

I apologize for stimulating an emotional response.
No need for an apology, ga.

It’s a serious matter, with serious consequences and you’re thoughts are far more considered and reasoned than many - but still, for me, kind of frustrating.

If you have read (notice the conditional “if” :D - your response suggests that you either didn’t read the linked articles, or you prejudged them) the linked articles (selected from many, many more like them not from suspect but from reliable sources) you saw that any connection between solar cycle variation and the current measured rise and multi-year rising trend in global temperatures has been very thoroughly researched: there is no significant contribution from solar cycle variation, for several reasons (discussed in the articles).

Likewise, the spread of disinformation about solar cycles and a coming mini ice age spread in media (that you say you “do not know about” - meaning, I believe, “I don’t think so”) is clearly established.

I am well aware that current solar forecasts are suggesting that we may be entering an era of protracted, weak solar cycles. I’m a ham. It’s why I’m looking for another linear amplifier and hoping to convince my wife that a tower and some Yagis won’t look all that bad. :D
This is interesting if I may add more at this level. I read through the links and each was discussing the 70s and how it wasn't a mini ice age. I did not notice in reading through the articles a note about solar activity.

My presumption was that the bit I had read about with coming reduction in solar activity (in other locations) may be related why people may think we're headed toward a "next" mini ice age. This does seem to be true from your response-- that you have been reading or hearing about discussion concerning the solar activity related to the predictions (by some) of a coming colder time.

I suppose my comment was received from that background and my "we'll see" was on both sides of the argument-- which is why I decried it as a scientific perspective. I'm not predicting it will nor am I predicting it won't. I merely phrased that it will be a time to observe and record. That's the scientific method which is why I highlighted it.

Social media is neither social nor media. It's an insane way to have people shout and the media now reports about recent "loud shouting". I've been in some government situations and have seen it played out in a not dissimilar way. The committee chair will ask for a verbal vote and the smaller group in the clear minority tries to shout louder. The chair then has authority to move on according to his perceived alignment unless there's a quick call for written/hand vote. It seems to me social media is about people wanting to be heard-- even when they don't have anything to say. "Trending" is a goal while character is lost.
The decades long, repeatedly expressed, desire to wait for more data after 40 years of research specifically directed toward discerning the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on climate, after greater and greater clarity regarding the mechanisms and the consequences has been achieved, is the “here we go again” I was referring to. Nothing in science is certain. But the level of certainty now achieved is far beyond the degree that suggests a significant response.

The level of agreement about this among researchers in the field is almost unprecedented.
The degree of public denial, likewise, unprecedented.

I can only guess at why. My guess has much to do with human nature - denial (the psychological mechanism) for many understandable reasons.

My lament regarding “here we go again” is founded in the decades long observation that we have had many, many years to come to an understanding and to address the situation. And still (while most of the world’s population has come to accept this reality), too many in the U.S. feel the need for even more data, more certainty.
This is worth a pause.

The methods of research have changed and improved in the recent decades. Let's call it 40 years (80s to now). I completely agree with that. Yet the definition of climate is about behavior observed over a 30 year period. I'm not calling into question the experts per se-- they've all come along in the past 40 years about the research. Tracing backward and tracing forward over long periods of time is especially tricky in science. Repeatable experiments cannot be done at the global level for review and assessment of predictions (within that experiment to isolate individual variables). We don't have a control and a lab.

That doesn't mean, from me, that we can't do science. I'm noting that the science is a different form--- such that with updated measuring techniques there is great value to take a natural occurrence of reduction of solar activity (lowest cycle considered in 200 years) it's worth paying attention to. I make no predictions-- just that it is a valuable time to use the current methods of measurement, etc.

I'm not an advocate on either "side" on this arena. I'm a thinker, an assessor, and a scientist (in a different arena).

Do you recall the media grab and run of initial experiments done by Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons on room temperature (cold) fusion in the late 80s? The potential positive was received in such exponential hype and propagation it spread faster than verification. My comparison is not on the science side but on the media and social media (which bleeds into politics) side. I am saying this becomes a super hot button issue for some that it seeps into their fears, worries and bias (see Goose's common sense seeming remark about what is obvious).

We had a major cold spell in the US in the 30s-- a whole decade. Likely very much related to the dust bowl era as a cause. What was happening elsewhere in the world? We saw recently a polar vortex dip deep and bring a chill during the summer--- and heat waves in France. The world is a very large system-- every time I fly and have a window seat I am amazed. We have jet streams, huge bodies of water, vast regions of unpopulated land and a huge atmosphere. Isolating variables or measuring a representative value for the whole system in this open environment boggles my mind.

Yet, it is worth doing. I applaud the scientists seeking to understand and wrap their minds around the system and figure out approaches.

It is worth being aware of our environment, recycling, prevention, waste loss and recover pursuits. We're a capable people and I like seeing progress at the low level up to the highs. I do not believe that reckless behavior should be valued-- I don't think government intrusion is of great value either (my one major peeve at Obama administration was to unilaterally decide incandescent bulbs were the bane of our culture and we should go without for the good.... That heats me up on the political side).

Let me add this, although I wasn’t going to - because it smacks of name dropping. Please forgive this. I did not know how else to give credibility to the following assertion about the integrity of the science.

One criticism of the science is that it has been corrupted by “agendas.”

The recent, former acting director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Dr. Richard Armstrong, was for years a very close friend and back country skiing buddy. When we were both in Silverton (he was then the director of a snow physics research project the Univ. of Washington had established in the San Juans) we spent hours together on snow and in conversation socially.

I contributed to two of his papers, one on the economic impact of avalanches in the San Juans, and an atlas of avalanches effecting US Hwy 550 between Silverton and Ouray and along the road from Ouray to the Camp Bird Mine. I know how thorough and careful he was.

Since, he has been associated with INSTAAR (the institute for Alpine and Arctic Research), NOAA, and he was responsible for coordinating, gathering together the research, and presenting the summary of international research on the state of science regarding climate change to the public.

His current work regards remote sensing of snow and ice water content in central Asia in order to predict the impact of current trends on water supplies for a large percentage of the people living on earth.

I know him and others like him I’ve met to be hugely capable scientists of extraordinary integrity only interested in the growth of our understanding of these phenomena. If they have an agenda, it might be summed up in one word: truth.
I appreciate that you dropped a name. I am glad you have experience and relation with good people and those out to pursue the science of it all.

I could have a pithy remark about Al Gore on the media, political side.... but I'll let you use your imagination.

It's a contrast and not a comparison. Solid scientists are desired and should be cherished and those on the fringe who make headlines their goal are like the muckrakers of this generation: A problem, not a solution.

I think we're rather on similar thinking with a potential flare up on opposing bias points. It is not wise to reject the efforts on climate science-- I completely agree. It is not wise to assume our doom is locked in like some political advocates indicate-- this would be my bias flare.

I appreciate your response and your point of view, Durangopipe. I'm not looking for this to be taken as an "opt in" disagreement or discussion. It's good we're relating on key practical points and concerns about our culture and our world.

Blessings,
G
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by durangopipe » Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:49 am

Thoughtful post, G.
Thank you.
My presumption was that the bit I had read about with coming reduction in solar activity (in other locations) may be related why people may think we're headed toward a "next" mini ice age. This does seem to be true from your response-- that you have been reading or hearing about discussion concerning the solar activity related to the predictions (by some) of a coming colder time.
The solar cycle's historical impact on climate was explored as a source of widespread disinformation about climate change in some of the links I posted, and it was also rather dogmatically proposed as the primary driver of global climate temperature cycles (which it is no longer considered to be) earlier in this thread. Hence, its mention.
Joshbowyer wrote:Something that climatologists conveniently ignore is solar radiation. Namely, the kind that varies in 11, 88, and 200-year cycles. When you line up the global temperatures with the larger solar cycles, you see that there is an incredibly clear link between the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period and a solar maximum, etc. The ENSO, PDO, and AMO systems (that are responsible for oceanic-driven weather patterns including El Nino/La Nina) are primarily driven by solar energy. An increase in energy basically results in less powerful trade winds (as the energy pumps the airstream up away from the earth and then back down at 30 degrees + and -), which results in the water in the Pacific stagnating and being allowed to accumulate more thermal energy than "usual", which then changes the ranges of the polar and tropical effects on the jetstream.

So basically warm or crazy weather = sun farts. And wouldn't you know, NASA and friends were saying about 15 years ago that we were in an 88 year solar cycle that was the highest it has been in "over 8,000 years" (which we've just come out of end of last year).

Expect things to cool back down, especially as we've entered a new "minimum" cycle, just like the Maunder Minimum that just so *happened* to coincide with the Mini Ice Age.
Climatologists did not "conveniently ignore it." It is one of the things they have studied most intensely. The reasons for why it is no longer considered a significant factor (as a result of that research) were discussed in the linked articles.

These kinds of ill-informed assertions - or should I say assertions informed by the sorts of unreliable sources we've been discussing here - are, admittedly, among my own triggers; however, I do not think my response to them is entirely inappropriate given the far more reliable information that is available to debunk the worst of such disinformation - as long as my responses do not become insulting. If they have, I apologize.

Current understanding (regarding one of your mentioned recent phenomena) includes:

Increased instability in the polar vortex (including far more likely retrograde expressions of jet stream flow) resulting in periods of record cold during northern hemisphere winters are linked to polar warming and the reduction of sea ice extent (more of this is predicted for the coming winter); similarly, polar climate change is believed to be responsible for phenomena like a weakening of the Labrador Current that is causing warmer Atlantic coastal waters to replace the colder current's waters, which is moving shrimp further north severely impacting, for example, shrimpers in Maine.

My salmon fishing friends who fish the tributaries of the Atlantic on the Gaspé Peninsula in Canada are seeing reduced salmon runs due to warm water species, newly inhabiting the mouths of those rivers, feasting on salmon smolts.

(Arctic and alpine climates have been far more dramatically affected by climate change, and these regions have been major areas of climate research.)

I agree, the complexity of climate is huge.
Anyone who agues that we fully understand it is naive.

But it is undeniably the case that after decades of intense study we now know a great deal more than we did when anthropogenic climate change was first proposed as a significant factor in long term climate patterns.

Pointing out the errors in the earliest research in order to discredit the entire subsequent body of work is a bit like denying the usefulness of science entirely because it once told us that interstellar space was filled with "ether" or that combustion required the presence of "phlogiston." Yet, this is what many, in their need to somehow feel justified in ignoring the matter, do.

As a scientist, I know that you know better.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by Kerdy » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:18 pm

Personally, I worry more about the shifting of the poles. There has been an increase lately and it isn't a good sign.
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by FredS » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:56 pm

Kerdy wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:18 pm
Personally, I worry more about the shifting of the poles. There has been an increase lately and it isn't a good sign.
Is there anything we can do to stop this pole shifting?

That, really, is the crux of the climate debate. We all understand our climate changes (see the photo below for proof of what Kansas looked like 70 years ago), but the problem is assigning cause or blame for an increase in the rate of change, and applying solutions - which may or may not be harmful to millions of people around the world - to slow it.

Image
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Re: The Climate Change Thread

Post by durangopipe » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:27 pm

FredS wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:56 pm
Kerdy wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:18 pm
Personally, I worry more about the shifting of the poles. There has been an increase lately and it isn't a good sign.
Is there anything we can do to stop this pole shifting?

That, really, is the crux of the climate debate. We all understand our climate changes (see the photo below for proof of what Kansas looked like 70 years ago), but the problem is assigning cause or blame for an increase in the rate of change, and applying solutions - which may or may not be harmful to millions of people around the world - to slow it.

Image
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